Results – Evaluation of Dutch climate diplomacy 2018-2021
The Netherlands conducted an international climate diplomacy campaign in the run-up to COP26, the 26th meeting of the Conference of Parties UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2021. The aim was to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and encourage other countries to accelerate climate action. The campaign took place in the period 2018-2021. IOB has now evaluated this campaign.
Background
Climate change is having an increasing and serious impact worldwide. Diplomacy is a visible and important part of Dutch climate policy and international cooperation in this field. This evaluation focuses specifically on climate diplomacy, as a substudy for the overarching periodic evaluation on Dutch climate policy in development (2016-2021). The other substudies in this context are the evaluation of climate financing (published in 2021) and the evaluation of climate adaptation, which will be published later this year. These evaluations mainly serve to draw lessons for future policy.
Central question
To what extent has the Dutch campaign achieved its goals? What explanations for this are there?
To answer this question, six subquestions were formulated:
What was the policy on climate diplomacy?
What capabilities and resources were available?
Which networks and actors have been mobilised and how successful was that?
What strategies were used and what was their quality?
How effective was the campaign in bringing about change in target countries?
What were success factors?
Conclusions
Although there were challenges, the climate diplomacy team managed to integrate climate better into both the work of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) itself and that of its partners. The team mobilised dozens of embassies and, through them, experts, the private sector and non-governmental organisations (NGOs).
Embassies have contributed to putting climate on the agenda in target countries, especially in the field of renewable energy. In addition, climate adaptation has been integrated into cooperation with some countries. In some cases, the Netherlands has managed to contribute to setting more ambitious climate policy goals, with the help of like-minded actors and partly thanks to growing international awareness of climate issues.
Below are six conclusions that address the various subquestions of the evaluation. A more detailed description can be found in the report.
The mandate was broad and ambitious.
The focus was initially on a group of around fifty countries with the largest greenhouse gas emissions. The Dutch ambitions were therefore broad and high. But from 2021 onwards, the campaign focused on a smaller number of countries and themes, partly because of the team’s large workload.
Compared against the mandate, the climate diplomacy team was small but capable.
There was a core team at the Inclusive Green Growth (IGG) directorate, with four employees and a team leader, that coordinated the campaign. In total, 7.5 employees at IGG were involved. They had the right skills, knowledge and networks, but compared to the amount of work it was a very small team.
The climate diplomacy team managed to mobilise colleagues and necessary players.
The team mobilised a diverse set of colleagues within the MFA and from other ministries for lobbying and advocacy, including a lot of embassies. More generally, climate was mainstreamed into the work of the MFA and into the work of high representatives and other ministries.
Both IGG and the most active embassies worked together with like-minded parties and seized opportunities.
Both the IGG climate diplomacy team and the embassies looked for opportunities to promote climate ambition. They worked flexibly and showed initiative. The most active and successful embassies often carried out many diplomacy activities. In addition, IGG and embassies constantly worked together with like-minded actors: with other governments, but also with multilateral organisations, youth representatives and the private sector.
When climate diplomacy was carried out consistently and together with like-minded actors, it contributed to agenda setting and a higher climate ambitions, as in the country cases of Vietnam and Israel.
A survey conducted by IOB showed that 18 of the 44 embassies which responded to it were likely to achieve results at a higher level: it is quite possible that their activities contributed to higher ambitions in their country. In Vietnam and Israel, IOB studied how the process of influencing policy took place.
Vietnam
In Vietnam, the Netherlands, the EU and their partners urged the government to formulate more ambitious targets for climate and energy. The Netherlands pushed for more ambitious indicators for EU budget support, which contributed to better targets, especially in the field of wind energy.
Vietnam has indeed become much more ambitious in renewable energy over the past five years, partly as a result of a push for higher ambitions by many different countries and favorable conditions. In this context, it is not possible to identify the exact extent of the contributions of Dutch and EU climate diplomacy to this increase in ambition.
Israel
In Israel, the Netherlands helped put (green) hydrogen on the agenda by organising a course, mini-symposia and a summer school and a visit to the Netherlands. Gradually, a network of hydrogen experts from both countries emerged, with experts from the private, academic and government sectors, who are capable of influencing policymaking.
Successful embassies consistently worked well with and mobilised different like-minded players. The collaboration with the Dutch private sector and experts was particularly valuable.
Positive factors
The use of different channels: bilateral, multilateral, private sector and experts, NGOs.
Lots of ambition, little capacity: the team was small compared to the workload
Coherence: support for fossil fuels makes the Netherlands less credible
Recommendations for diplomatic campaigns
Based on the findings, IOB formulated some recommendations. A full description can be found in the report.
The most important lessons for future diplomatic campaigns are:
A. The mandate for a diplomatic campaign should be clear, focused and achievable.
B. The campaign team should fit the mandate and be large enough.
Draw up a clear Theory of Change.
Make the strategy specific to each country and/or theme, and deploy capable staff for this purpose.
Be flexible: keep an eye out for opportunities.
- Always beat the drum on priority topics and foster your reputation.
Offer concrete benefits, such as technical expertise or access to finance.
These recommendations are formulated based on answers to the research questions. In addition, two more issues emerged, in conversations and interviews, which (although outside the scope of the evaluation) are worth mentioning:
6. The climate diplomacy team no longer exists; their work has been integrated into the IGG department. But mainstreaming carries the risk of 'away-streaming'. If new momentum builds, consider setting up a new diplomatic campaign.
7. The second concerns a recommendation on coherence. The Netherlands will have to put its money where its mouth is and also show ambition in national policies. This will make it a more credible advocate towards other countries.
